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气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应 预览 被引量:203

National Assessment Report of Climate Change ( Ⅱ ): Climate change impacts and adaptation
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摘要 已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,日前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域,加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。 The significant and various impacts of climate change are observed from the past experience, the impacts were shown as advantageous and adverse impacts in different sectors and regions, while mainly presented as adverse. It is very likely that future climate change would result in significant adverse impacts on the ecosystem and the national sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. The adverse impacts would be alleviated by adopting adaptive measures; the adaptive actions to climate change should be incorporated into the medium- and long-term planning of national economic and social development. Because of lack of scientific research and limit of understanding on climate change, there are still a lot of uncertainties for impact assessment methodology and results. Case studies should be strengthened, research aspects should be enlarged, and impacts assessment of extreme weather/climate events should be enhanced to reduce the uncertainties and develop practical adaptive measures to cope with climate change in China.
作者 林而达 许吟隆 蒋金荷 李玉娥 杨修 张建云 李从先 吴绍洪 赵宗群 吴建国 居辉 严昌荣 王守荣 刘允芬 杜碧兰 赵成义 秦保芳 刘春蓁 黄朝迎 张小全 马世铭 LIN Erda , XU Yinlong, JIANG Jinhe , LI Yu, YANG Xiu , ZHANG Jianyun , LI Congxian , WU Shaohong, ZHAO Zongqun , WU Jianguo , JU Hui , YAN Changrong , WANG Shourong , LIU Yunfen , DU Bilan, ZHAO Chengyi , QIN Baofang, LIU Chunzhen , HUANG Chaoying , ZHANG Xiaoquan, MA Shiming ( 1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2 .Institute of Quantitative& Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China; 3. Water Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beo'ing 210093, China; 4 .School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China; 5 .Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 6. School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100083, China; 7 Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China; 8. China Meteorological Administration, Being 100081, China; 9 .China Institute for Marine Affairs, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100860, China; 10. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, UEriimqi Xinjiang 830011, China; 11 .Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu Sichuan 610041, China; 12. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 13 .Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China )
出处 《气候变化研究进展》 2006年第2期 51-56,共6页 Advances in Climate Change
基金 “十五”国家科技攻关计划“重大环境问题对策与关键支撑技术研究”(2003BA614A-15)资助 致谢:感谢气候变化国家评估报告第二部分所有作者的贡献,由于篇幅所限,文前只列出了主要作者,恕不能一一署名,敬请谅解.同时感谢张锦、朱界平、傅平同志的大力帮助!
关键词 中国气候变化 气候情景 影响评估 适应措施 不确定性 climate change in China climate scenarios, impact assessment, adaptive measures, uncertainty
作者简介 林而达(1947-),男,研究员,主要从事气候变化与农业相互影响方面的研究,E-mail:lined@ns,ami.ac,cn
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