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近50年东北冷涡异常特征及其与前汛期华南降水的关系分析 预览 被引量:51

The Anomalous Features of the Northeast Cold Vortex During the First Flood Period in the Last 50 Years and Its Correlation with Rainfall in South China
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摘要 利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的1951-2004年中国160站华南前汛期(5~6月)月平均降水、气温资料、欧洲中心提供的ERA-40再分析资料和Reynolds海温资料,对东北冷涡与华南前汛期降水进行了统计分析,定义了一个前汛期东北冷涡强度指数(NECVI),并研究了前汛期东北冷涡异常年同期东亚季风、西太平洋副高、对流层低层的垂直运动异常特征和前期全球海表温度(SST)的先兆信号,结果表明:前汛期东北冷涡强度与华南降水存在显著的正相关,东北冷涡强年,前期东亚冬季风偏弱,同期东亚夏季风异常爆发提前且偏强,西太平洋副高位置偏南,华南地区低层上升运动发展,降水偏多;东北冷涡偏弱年,前期东亚冬季风偏弱,同期东亚夏季风爆发推迟且偏弱,西太平洋副高位置偏北,华南地区低层下沉运动发展,降水偏少;前汛期东北冷涡与前期中国近海海温存在显著的负相关关系,前汛期东北冷涡异常强年,前期对应着LaNifia的成熟阶段或发展阶段,而前汛期东北冷涡异常弱年则对应着EI Nino的成熟阶段或发展阶段。 Based on the 1951 - 2004 monthly precipitation and surface air temperature of 160 Chinese stations sup- plied by National Climatic Center, the reanalysis data from ERA-40 datasets supplied by ECMWF with resolution 2. 5°×2. 5° and the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data with resolution 2. 0°× 2. 0°, the correlation between the northeast cold vortex (NECV) and the rainfall during the first flood period in South China has been inves- tigated statistically and a season time-scale (May-June) northeast cold vortex index (NECVI) during the first flood period has been defined. The anomalous features of the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the vertical movements in the low troposphere during the anomalous-NECV first flood periods have been analyzed and the preceding signals of the global SST in the 6 months before the first flood period in South China have been studied using the composite analysis method and the correlation analysis method. Results show that there is a significantly positive correlation between the NECV and the precipitation during the first flood period in South China, strong NECV related to more precipitation and vice versa. The anomalously strong-NECV first flood periods are often related to the weak EASM, more southward WPSH and strong ascending movements developing in the low troposphere in South China, which offer necessary atmospheric circulation conditions for the increasing of precipitation during the first flood period in South China, whereas the anomalously weak-NECV first flood periods are usually associated with the strong EASM, more northward WPSH and strong descending movements developing in the low troposphere in South China, which offer necessary atmospheric circulation conditions for the decreasing of precipitation during the first flood period in South China. There is a significantly negative correlation between the NECV during the first flood period and the SST in the sea areas from Arabian Sea, acro
作者 苗春生 吴志伟 何金海 池艳珍 MIAO Chun-Sheng, WU Zhi-Wei, HE Jin-Hai, CHI Yan-Zhen ( Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044)
出处 《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2006年第6期 1249-1256,共8页 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目2004CB418303,广东省自然科学基金0400391,热带海洋气象科学研究基金 致谢 感谢中国气象局国家气象信息中心和欧洲中心(ECMWF)提供的相关气象资料.
关键词 前汛期 东北冷涡 旱涝 the first flood period, the Northeast cold vortex, droughts and floods
作者简介 苗春生,男,1954年出生,副教授,从事天气气候预测方法及现代教育技术的研究。E-mail:csmiao@nuist.edu.cn
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