自从 1970 年代，中国地震学者开始在下一年里在来地震的可能性的上进行了年度咨询。当对聚会的活跃回答处于地震预言研究遇见的状况需要许多困难，或作为固执地为 1/3 世纪进行的真实前面的预言测试，这条途径也有唯一的科学、实际的优点。如此的一条途径一直不由国际地震学上的社区是著名的，这是一件可惜的事，并且如此的一个努力的科学优点抱歉地有时被低估。
Since the 1970s, Chinese seismologists have started to conduct the Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Coming Earthquakes in the Next Year. This approach has unique scientific and practical merits either as an active response to the social needs in the situation that earthquake prediction research meets many difficulties, or as a real forward prediction test persistently conducted for 1/3 century. It is a pity that such an approach has not been well-known by international seismological community, and the scientific merits of such an endeavor is sometimes regrettably underestimated.
Earthquake Research in China
Different parts of the contents of this paper have been presented at the 4th Assembly of ASC （2002 in Kathmandu, Nepal, with Zhu being the key speaker）, the 3rd ICCE （2004 in Beijing, China, with Zhu being the speaker）, the Conference on Earthquake Predictability and Time-dependent Forecasting （2007 in Rueschlikon, Zurich, Switzerland, with Wu being the contributor）, and the StatSeis-5 Meeting in connection with the 28th Course of the International School of Geophysics （2007 Erice, Italy, with Wu being the lecturer）, respectively. Chinese version with modification and addition will be included in the Collection of Papers for the Celebration of the 80th Birthday of Prof. Mei Shirong, published by Seismological Press, Beijing, in 2008. This work is supported by Ministry of Science and Technology under contract number 2004CB418406. Thanks are due to Prof. Peter Bormann for his suggestions on the revision, and to Profs. T.H. Jordan, R. Singh, S. Uyeda, and Zhang Guomin for useful discussions.
Time-dependent seismic hazard
Intermediate-term earthquake forecast
Reduction of earthquake disasters
Wu Zhongliang, born in 1963, is a professor of the Center for Earth System Science, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is also a research professor and director of the Institute of Geophysics, CEA. He obtained his Ph. D. degree in Peking University in 1991. E-mail： email@example.com