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大同市近50年霜冻及其异常事件变化特征分析 预览 被引量:8

Variation Analysis on Frost and Unusual Events in Datong City in Rencent 50 Years
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摘要 利用1958-2008年大同市逐日最低地温资料,采用线性倾向估计法和正态分布原理分析了大同市近50a霜冻及其异常事件发生趋势。结果表明:初霜冻日的线性倾向率约以1.8d/10a的速度推后,终霜冻日约以1.7d/10a的速度提前,无霜冻期约以3d/10a的速度延长。从霜冻的异常特征分析,大同市初霜冻偏晚、终霜冻偏早及无霜期偏长异常事件发生概率偏多,而且均发生在20世纪80年代以后且呈递增趋势,而其它异常霜冻事件随年代均呈递减趋势。在近年来气候变暖的基础上,分析探讨霜冻的气候变化特征,对提高当地霜冻灾害的预测和防御能力有着十分重要的意义。 Based on data of the daily minimum earth temperature stations from 1958 to 2008,it studied the tenancy trend inclination of frost and unusual events in Datong in recent 50 years using the linear-trend estimation and normal distribution theory.It showed that the date of frost appearance happened late for 1.8 days every 10 years using the linear-trend estimation,the data of frost disappearance happened early for 1.7 days every 10 years,and the frost-free period lengthen for 3 days every 10 years.The characteristics of the unusual frost events demonstrated that there was a high probability that Datong's first frost happened relatively late,and the last frost happened relatively early and the frost-free period had been lengthened,all of which happened after the 1980s with a growing trend while other unusual events happened with a decline trend.On the basis of global warming,it was significance to predict and prevent local frost through analyzing the characteristics of frost climatic variation.
作者 梁进秋 贾利芳 何正梅 高清兰 梁丽珍 徐鑫 LIANG Jin-qiu,JIA Li-fang,HE Zheng-mei,GAO Qin-lan,LIANG Li-zhen,XU Xin(Datong Meteorological Bureau,Datong 037010,China)
机构地区 大同市气象局
出处 《中国农业气象》 CSCD 2010年第S1期124-128,共5页 Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金 大同市农村技术承包项目“大同市农作物自然灾害早期预测技术”(2006-NJCB-2-04)
关键词 大同市 日最低地温 霜冻事件 变化趋势 Datong city Daily minimum earth temperature Frost events Change trend
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