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应用残差自回归模型预测2020年我国妇幼卫生健康指标 预览 被引量:4

Forecast of the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020 using auto-regressive model
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摘要 目的:预测2020年我国妇幼卫生健康指标。方法:利用1989至2007年我国监测地区的婴儿死亡率、5岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率数据,采用时间序列残差自回归分析方法建立预测模型,经统计学检验和评价后再进行预测。结果:分别获得了婴儿死亡率、5岁以下儿童死亡率和孕产妇死亡率残差自回归模型,各模型及其参数都通过了统计学检验,回代后平均绝对误差在5%左右,模型的决定系数都超过了90%。结论:根据各自的模型预测结果,2020年我国婴儿死亡率将为6.35‰,5岁以下儿童死亡率为7.37‰,孕产妇死亡率为22.21/10万。 Objective:To forecast the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020.Methods: Based on Surveillance data of the indicators on the maternal and child health in China since the 1990s,forecasting models were found using auto-regressive method,and the indicators on maternal and child health in China in 2020 were forecasted using the models after they had been tested and valued.Results: Auto-regressive models on infant mortality rate(IMR),under-5 mortality rate(U5MR) and maternal mortality(MMR) were found.The models and their parameters passed statistical tests,and their mean absolute error was 5% or so and determination coefficients were all more than 90%.Conclusion: The IMR of China in 2020 was forecasted to be 6.35‰,the U5MR 7.37‰ and the MMR 22.21/100 000.
作者 任正洪 安琳 张伶俐 REN Zheng-hong,AN Lin,ZHANG Ling-li(1.Department of Child,Adolescent and Women's Health,Peking University School of Public Health,Beijing 100191,China;2.Department of Community Health and Maternal and Child Health,MOH)
出处 《北京大学学报:医学版》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2010年第2期 221-224,共4页 Journal of Peking University:Health Sciences
关键词 预测 模型 统计学 婴儿死亡率 产妇死亡率 儿童死亡率 Forecasting Models statistical Infant mortality Maternal mortality Child mortality
作者简介 Corresponding author' s e-mail, anlin@ bjmu. edu. cn
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