期刊文献+

房价波动的空间效应:估计方法与我国实证 被引量:10

The Spatial Effects of Housing Prices: Method and Evidence from China
收藏 分享 导出
摘要 本文首次提出处理房价波动差异性的方法,并利用CCE估计法探讨了35个大中城市房价波动的空间效应。我国房价波动存在明显的空间效应,不同城市的房价波动具有较强的趋同性和横截面相关;同时,不同城市房价波动存在一定的差异和明显的领先滞后关系。房价均值、收入均值、贷款均值,均对房价波动有显著影响,在共同因素作用下,不同城市房价具有很强的截面相关、房价波动表现出趋同性。经济越发达的城市,不仅房价高、增长快,而且房价运行的独立性越强;而经济落后的城市,其房价容易受到外部地区房价的影响。房价高增长城市的人均可支配收入和贷款对房价的拉动作用大干房价低增长城市、波动性也更大。贷款在短期内是驱动我国房价波动的主要因素,但长期内,贷款对房价的拉动力比人均可支配收入要小得多。 This paper puts forward a method of dealing housing price differences firstly, studying the spatial effects of housing price and reasons in 35 cities by the common correlated effects estimator. Housing price exists obvious spatial effects, which is illustrated by the strong convergences and cross dependences in different cities. Meanwhile, housing price in different city has certain variances and significant lead-lag relationships. Average price, average income and average loan have evident impact on housing price. With common factors, housing price in different cities has strong cross dependence and convergence. Housing price in more developed cities grows higher and faster, and run more dependently. But housing price in less developed cities is more vulnerable to external influence. Per capita disposable income and loan in higher-price cities drive more than in lower-price cities to the housing price. So is the volatility. In the short run, loan mainly drives housing price fluctuations, while in the long run, per capita disposable income plays a bigger role than loan to the housing price.
作者 谭政勋 周利 TAN Zheng-xun ZHOU Li (School of Finance Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632,China)
出处 《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第3期401-413,共13页 Application of Statistics and Management
基金 基金项目:本文得到国家社会科学基金项目(12BJYl61),教育部人文社会科学项目(09YJA790087),广东省优秀博士学位论文项目(sybzzxm201032)的资助.
关键词 房价波动 空间效应 CCE估计 最大似然估计 housing price fluctuations, spatial effects, CCE estimate, ML estimation
  • 相关文献

参考文献20

  • 1Giussani B, Hadjimatheou G. Modeling regional house prices in the UK [J]. Papers in Regional Science, 1991, 70(2): 201-219. 被引量:1
  • 2Macdonald R, Taylor M. Regional housing prices in Britain: Long run relationships and short run dynamics [J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 1993, 40(1): 43 55. 被引量:1
  • 3Alexander C, Barrow M. Seasonality and cointegration of regional house prices in the UK [J]. Urban Studies, 1994, 31(10): 1667 1689. 被引量:1
  • 4Meen G. Regional housing prices and the ripple effect: A new interpretation [J]. Housing Studies, 1999, 14(6): 733-753. 被引量:1
  • 5Cook S, Thomas C. An alternative approach to examining the ripple effect in UK house prices [J]. Applied Economics Letters, 2003, 10(13): 849-851. 被引量:1
  • 6Cook S. Detecting long-run relationships in regional housing prices in the UK [J]. International Review of Applied Economics, 2005, 19(1): 107-118. 被引量:1
  • 7Holmes. How convergent are regional house prices in the United Kingdom? Some new evidence from panel data unit root testing [J]. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 2007, 9(1): 1 17. 被引量:1
  • 8Englund, Ioannides. House Price Dynamic: An International Empirical Perspective[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 1997, 6:119 136. 被引量:1
  • 9Holly, Pesaran and Yamagata. A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA [J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 158:160 173. 被引量:1
  • 10洪涛,西宝,高波.房地产价格区域间联动与泡沫的空间扩散——基于2000-2005年中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证检验[J].统计研究,2007,24(8):64-67. 被引量:55

二级参考文献175

共引文献467

同被引文献154

引证文献10

二级引证文献32

投稿分析

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部 意见反馈
新型冠状病毒肺炎防控与诊疗专栏