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对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估 预览 被引量:30

The Evaluation of Chinese Annual Earthquake Prediction in the 90s
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摘要 采用R评分方法,对中国地震局1990到1998年的年度地震预报进行了统计和评估。随机猜测预报R为0,完全准确预报R为1,我国90年代的年度预报R评分平均为0.184,如果把地震局实际预报与选取最大背景概率地区预报相结合,可以使R评分提高到0.336。统计表明,中国年度地震预报对5级以上地震的预报水平还不高,特别是在人烟烯少、台站缺乏的高地震背景概率区,预报效果较低;但在人口密集、经济发达的重点监测地区,中国地震局年度预报高于随机预报,实际预报取得了一定效果。 China Seismological Bureau (CSB) has been carrying on routine annual earthquake prediction in China since 1975. In this study, we apply a scheme of R score to evaluate the disclosed annual predictions in the 90s. A completely random guess leads to an R score of 0 and a complete successful prediction has an R score of +1. The average R score of the annual prediction in China in the 90s is about 0.184, greater than 0. This score has to be compared with different strategies of random predictions because the background seismicity in China is different in different regions. The first strategy is to make chances of predictions at each location proportional to its background seismicity, which leads to an expected R score of 0.150. The CSB annual prediction is marginally higher than this value. The second strategy is predictions are made only at regions of highest background seismicity, the R score then can reach as high as 0.270,superior than the CSB prediction, but this kind of prediction is practical meaningless. A combination of actual prediction of CSB and regions of highest background seismicity can raise the R score to 0.336,superior than strategy 2. This study indicates that annual earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage. CSB annual prediction is not better than random predictions at remote areas, but behaves better than random predictions in populated and economic important regions which are the main areas carefully monitored in Chinese earthquake prediction project.
作者 石耀霖 刘杰 Shi Yaolin (Department of Geosciences, Graduate School,University of Science and Technology of China, Beijing 100039) Liu Jie Zhang Guomin (Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036)
出处 《中国科学院研究生院学报》 CAS CSCD 2000年第1期 63-69,共7页 Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
基金 国家自然科学基金! (4 97742 36 ) 国家基础科学重点基金!资助项目 (G980 40 70 6 )
关键词 地震预报 统计检验 中国 评估 背景概率 年度预报 随机预报 90年代 earthquake prediction, statistical test, China,evaluation
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参考文献1

  • 1Zhang Guomin,Boll Seismo Soc Amer,1999年,89卷,1171页 被引量:1

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