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货币政策与房地产价格调控:理论与中国经验 被引量:59

Monetary Policy and Real Estate Prices Regulatory: Theory and Chinese Evidence
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摘要 本文以货币政策的两大主要工具——利率与存准率为切入点,分析了货币政策与房地产价格的关联性,并进一步分析了货币政策对房地产价格的调控机理,在此基础上,选取2003--2013年间月度数据作为样本,对货币政策调控房地产价格进行了实证分析。研究发现,利率是房地产价格的格兰杰原因,但是,利率对房地产价格的调控效应不显著;存准率是房地产价格的格兰杰原因,存准率与房地产价格之间存在长期稳定的正向均衡关系,存准率对房地产价格的调控效应显著。以此为依据,本文给出了货币政策调控房地产价格的相关政策建议。 Based on the related research achievements, this article describes the changes of interest rates and deposit reserve ratio compared with real estate prices. Then We choose monthly data from 2003 to 2013 for empirical analysis. Considering the adjustment of the qualitative variables will affect real estate prices, We add a dummy variable in the regression model, and find that there's no significant impact between interest rate and real estate prices, but the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio does affect real estate prices. On the basis of stationary test, cointegration test indicates that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between deposit reserve ratio and real estate prices. At the same time, We use error vector autoregressive model to analyze the short-term relationship. Besides, causality test shows that interest rate and deposit reserve ratio are the granger cause of real estate prices. By the end of the articles, We put forward the corresponding policy suggestions to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market.
作者 顾海峰 张元姣 Gu Haifeng and Zhang Yuanjiao ( Donghua University)
出处 《经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第A01期29-43,共15页 Economic Research Journal
基金 本文受国家社会科学基金项目(13BGL041)、教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJC790051)资助.感谢匿名审稿人的建议,文责自负.
关键词 货币政策 房地产价格 调控机理 利率 存准率 Monetary Policy Tools Real Estate Prices Regulatory Mechanism Interest Rate Deposit Reserve Ratio
作者简介 电子信箱:sztzghf@163.com
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