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房地产政策调控对房价影响研究——基于ARDL模型的分析 被引量:6

Research on the influence of real estate policy on housing price
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摘要 近一年来,我国房地产政策围绕"房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的"加大调控力度。本文以租售同权以及限购、限贷等限制型调控手段为切入点,选取2009-2017年间月度数据作为样本,通过自回归分布滞后(ADRL)模型,从短期与长期两个角度,研究了租售同权等政策对于房价调控的影响,并给出了相应的对策建议。研究发现:租售同权及贷款利率对房价具有长期稳定的影响,调整家庭购买资格与数量,短期内会对于房价的调整起到一定的作用,但是长期效果不显著,首付比的调整对于北京等一线城市的房价抑制作用较小。这对我国构建长效的房地产发展机制具有重要意义。 Over the past year, China's real estate policy has strengthen efforts around the idea that houses are for living, not for hype. This research focuses on rental with right and restrictive regulation methods, including, purchasing restriction, credit limit. In this paper we collects monthly data in the period of 2009-2017 as a sample, studied the impact of the rental with right and restriction policy on housing prices regulation, through the au- toregressive distribution lag (ADRL) model, from the short-term and long-term two angles. The study found that the rental with right and adjustment of loan interest rates has a long-term and stable impact on housing prices. The study also found that the adjustment of family pur- chase qualifications and quantity plays a certain role in the adjustment of housing prices in the short term, but the effect is not significant in the long-term, while the adjustment of down payment ratio has little effect on housing prices in Beijing. This study is of great significance to the construction of long-term real estate development mechanism in China.
出处 《价格理论与实践》 CSSCI 北大核心 2017年第11期70-73,共4页 Price:Theory & Practice
基金 国家自然科学基金青年项目:61703014 国家自然科学基金面上项目:61773029 北京市社会科学基金研究基地项目:17JDGLB019 朝阳区博士后基金项目 北京工业大学人文社科基金项目
关键词 租售同权 限购限贷 房地产调控 ADRL模型 Rental with right Limit purchase limit loan Real estate regulation ADRL model
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