Residents＇ consumption of textile fibers mainly comes from natural fibers and chemical fibers,among which, cotton is an important part of residents＇ clothes consumption of fiber and so on. The cotton consumption accounts for more than 80 percent of natural fibers, and it is the bottom line of China＇s cotton security to meet the consumer demand of China. Scientifically judging the demand of China＇s residents for cotton in the future is of great significance to policy-making for cotton industry. Aiming at the lack of statistical data of cotton demand, according to the consumption trend and structure characteristics of textile fibers at home and abroad and using scenario analysis, this study predicted that China＇s cotton demand of fiber consumption was about five million tons in 2020, under moderate growth of per capita consumption of textile fibers. In order to effectively meet this demand, China needs to stabilize its cotton production in the future and step up its supports in policies, technology promotion and mechanical application so as to prevent the cotton production from continuously shrinking.