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经济增长与资源消费的脱钩关系——基于演化视角的中日韩美比较研究 预览 被引量:2

Decoupling relationship analysis between economic growth and resource consumption in China, Japan, South Korea and the United States: a transitional perspective
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摘要 实现经济增长与资源消费脱钩是“跨越环境高山”、实现可持续发展的重要路径,厘清增长模式与驱动因子是重要决策支撑。然而迄今针对亚太地区不同国家之间的对比研究与模式抽提相对较少。本文选取中国、日本、韩国三个典型的、处于不同经济发展阶段的东亚国家以及美国(作为发达国家参照)为研究对象,基于物质流分析框架和指标研究了1970-2008年四国的资源生产和消费(包括金属和工业用矿物、化石燃料、建筑材料、生物质能源四大类),对比了不同国家间经济发展水平、原材料资源国内消费量和资源利用效率的变化趋势和差异特征。在此基础上,利用环境负荷模型(IPAT)进一步探讨和分析了影响各国资源消费变化的驱动因子及其变化趋势,最后借助Tapio脱钩模型研究判断了国家经济增长与资源消费间的脱钩关系。研究结果表明:①中日韩美四国的人均GDP、人均资源开采和消费水平差异显著,资源禀赋优厚的美国与中国的资源开采量与消费量都处于世界前列,然而就人均GDP水平而言,中国远不如其他三个国家,美国和日本都是成熟的发达国家,韩国也步入了发达国家行列。②中日韩美四国的资源利用效率存在显著区别,过去三十年间日本资源效率赶超美国成为第一,韩国的资源利用效率排第三,中国的资源效率则最低。③中日韩美四国经济增长对原材料资源消费的依赖程度,以及资源消费的驱动因素及其贡献率也存在明显差异,日本经济增长在技术驱动下基本实现与资源消费的脱钩,韩国表现出和日本一样的趋势,美国则处于稳定弱脱钩状态,而中国的经济发展对资源消费的依赖度仍很大。依托技术升级大幅度提升过程行业资源效率、持续推进区域生态工业发展是实现我国经济增长与资源消费脱钩的重要路径。 Clarifying the mode and driving factor of econonfic growth, as well as realizing the decoupling of econonfic growth and resource consumption are essential to achieve sustainable development. However, few studies have compared that eeononfie development mode between different typical countries of the Pacific Rim. This study selected three typical North Asia-Pacific countries ( China, Japan and South Korea) which are at different stages of econonfic development, and chose the United States ( as developed reference) as the research objects. Based on the framework of material flow analysis, the production and consumption data of raw materials such as metal and industrial nfinerals, fossil fuels, construction nfinerals and biomass in four countries mentioned above from 1970 to 2008 were collected. Moreover, the change trends of economic development, domestic material consumption and extraction, and resource efficiency among different countries were compared. By using the IPAT model, driving forces for the material flow change were further investigated. Finally, Tapio deeoupling model was applied to quantitatively distinguish the relationship between economic growth and resource eonsmnption. Results showed that: ①GDP per capita and resource extraction and eonsumption per capita in four countries varied significantly. Resource extraction and eonsumption in the United States and China were in the forefront of the world for their abundant resources. In terms of GDP per capita, China was far less than the other three countries. In contrast, the United States and Japan were mature developed countries and South Korea had become a developed country-. ②Obvious differences of resource efficiency in four countries had been found. Over the past three decades, Japan had surpassed the United States to become the top. South Korea ranked third while China' s resource efficiency is the lowest. ③ The dependence of economic growth on material eonsumnption and the driving forces for material flow change varied significa
作者 梁涵玮 倪玥琦 董亮 戴铭 刘天宏 文一朵 LIANG Han-wei1, NI Yue-qi1, DONG Liang2,3 ,DAI Ming4 ,LIU Tian-hong1, WEN Yi-duo1 (1. School of Geographic Science, Nanjing University of Ilfformation Science and Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210044, China; 2. Institute of Environment Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden 2333CC, The Netherlands; 3. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki 305 -8506, Japan 4. Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100037, China)
出处 《中国人口资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2018年第5期8-16,共9页 China Polulation.Resources and Environment
基金 江苏省自然科学基金青年项目“基于多源空间数据的南京市基础设施中钢铁资源效益与回收策略研究”(批准号:20160957) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于大数据融合的气象灾害应急管理研究”(批准号:16ZDA047) 南京信息工程大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目“基于夜间灯光和三维GIS数据的城市建筑物矿产存量估算方法研究”(批准号:201610300297) 国家自然科学基金项目“基于区域时空动态物质能量代谢解析的区域生态工业发展设计与评价模型开发”(批准号:41701636).
关键词 脱钩关系 物质流分析 资源消费 IPAT 资源效率 decoupling relationships material flow analysis resource consumption IPAT resource efficiency
作者简介 梁涵玮,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为资源环境与可持续评价。E—mail:liang.hanwei@nuist.edu.cn.
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