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降雨天气下公路出行者出行方式转移模型 被引量:2

A Model of Highway Travelers' Travel Mode Shift under Rainy Weather
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摘要 降雨会导致公众出行方式选择行为发生改变,出行方式选择行为是交通需求预测的重要基础理论。为探究降雨天气下致使公路出行者出行方式发生转移的影响因素及转移的其他出行方式的概率,以公路出行者在降雨天气下对使用小汽车、高铁、客运班车、飞机或不出行的出行方式选择行为为研究对象,设计并完成降雨天气下公路出行者出行意愿问卷调查(SP调查)。根据不同降雨程度以及出行目,围绕4种场景展开。主要考虑的因素有6种:出行时耗、性别、年龄、职业、出行频次、驾龄。基于出行意愿调查问卷数据,分别构建4种场景下出行方式转移的多项Logistic回归模型,探讨大雨和中雨天气下刚性出行计划和弹性出行计划中以使用小汽车为参照的出行方式转移模型及主要影响因素。模型结果显示,居民的驾龄、出行频次对研究范围出行方式转移模型具有显著影响。而休闲出行计划中,出行时耗的影响变得显著,并且大雨天气下的休闲计划出行中性别亦有显著影响。各因素在不同情景下对出行方式转移模型的影响程度存在明显差异。本研究可以为综合运输网络的交通规划、需求预测以及制定决策提供理论支撑和决策依据。 Rainfall will lead to shift in the public behaviors of travel mode choice that is an important basic theory of traffic demand forecast. In order to explore the factors that affect the travel mode shift of highway travelers and the probabilities of shifting to other travel modes in rainy weather, a Stated Preference (SP) survey is designed and carried out, which focused on traveler's travel mode of driving a car, riding on high- speed rail, taking a coach, taking a plane or deciding not to travel. According to the different degrees of rainfall and trip purposes, 4 scenarios are analyzed considering 6 factors which are as follows: travel time, gender, age, occupation, travel frequency, and driving experience. Moreover, multiple Logistic regressions in the 4 scenarios of travel mode shift are built. Taking the mode of driving a car as a reference, the travel mode shift model and the influencing factors of business travel plan and leisure travel plan under heavy rain and moderate rain weathers are explored based on SP data. The model result shows that ( 1 ) residents' driving age and travel frequency have significant impact on the travel mode shift models within the scope of the study ; (2) trip time consume has significant impact on travel mode choice model in leisure travel plan, and gender has significant impact in leisure travel plan under heavy rain weather; (3) there are obvious differences in the influence degree of each factor on travel mode shift model under different scenarios, these can provide a theoretical support and decision-making basis for traffic planning, demand forecasting and decision-making of integrated transport network.
作者 张凡 韩志玲 陈艳艳 李佳贤 崔玮 ZHANG Fan1, HAN Zhi-ling2 , CHEN Yan-yan2 , LI JIa-xian2 , CUI Wei1 ( 1. Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100088, China; 2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)
出处 《公路交通科技》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第6期105-111,130共8页 Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金 交通运输部建设科技项目(2015318223010)
关键词 交通工程 出行方式转移 多项Logistic回归 城市间出行 降雨天气 Traffic engineering travel mode shift multiple Logistic regression travel between cities rainyweather
作者简介 张凡(1987-),男,山西临汾人,硕士研究生.(zhangfan@itsc.cn)
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