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中美地缘战略搏弈前瞻 预览

On Prospect of China-U.S. Geo-strategy Game
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摘要 21世纪的中美地缘战略互动,具体表现为双方近期在西太平洋、中期在中南亚、远期在北极圈的地缘战略强强对话,而可燃冰与页岩气的开发技术突破、中南亚的内涵与外延的演变、工业化温室效应的双刃剑效应将是相应的三个重要变量。中美两国对彼此的地缘战略定位都经历了三个阶段,未来又都将两度调整。中美地缘战略之竞争与合作将长期交替递进,前者的鸽形地缘战略模式与后者的鹰形地缘战略模式都将深刻影响21世纪的地区竞合,中美关系切忌鹬蚌相争,而“中国特色”的“人类命运共同体”将规避“修昔底德陷阱”。中美地缘战略博弈之地区竞合焦点消除工具理性,则人类文明前途无限。 The geo-strategy interaction between China and the U. S. in the 21st century is reflected particularly in the power-to-power geo-strategy dialogues upon West Pacific in recent time, upon Midsouth Asia in the intermediate stage, and upon the Arctic Circle in the future, while the three main variables are the development technology breakthrough for flammable ice and shale gas, the evolution of connotation and extension for Mid-south Asia, and the rapier effect for industrialized greenhouse effect. China and USA’s geo -strategy image upon each other went both through three steps, and the two country’s image upon each other is to be adjusted both twice. China-U.S. geo-strategy competition and cooperation are to go forward one by one alternately in the long term, and the former’s pigeon-shape geo-strategy model and the latter’s eagle-shape geo-strategy model are both to have a great influence on the regional security in the 21st century, while China-U.S. relationship shouldn’t be “the crane and the mother-of-pearl fight to death”, and “a community of shared future for mankind”with Chinese characteristics is to evade “Thucydides Trap”. Moreover, the human civilization has a boundless future when the regional competition or cooperation focus of China -U.S. geo -strategy Game eliminates instrumental reason.
作者 陈俊杰 CHEN Jun-jie(School of Politics and Public Administration, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China)
出处 《渤海大学学报:哲学社会科学版》 2019年第2期68-74,共7页 Journal of Bohai University:Philosophy and Social Science Edition
关键词 中美关系 地缘政治经济学 战略博弈 地区竞合 焦点转换 China-U.S. relation geopolitical economy strategy game, regional competition and cooperation focus transformation
作者简介 陈俊杰(1973-),男,博士,河南师范大学政治与公共管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,从事国际政治经济学研究.
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