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数理统计模型在黄土滑坡敏感性评价中的应用 预览

Application of Mathematical Statistics Model in Sensitivity Evaluation of Loess Landslide
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摘要 滑坡敏感性评价能定量或半定量地确定区域滑坡发生的空间概率,可有效应用于防灾减灾工程。为探究数理统计模型在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的适用性,以黄土滑坡频发的山西省吕梁山区为例,首先选取区内的3个县幅(吉县幅、午城镇幅、临县幅)共189个黄土滑坡灾害点为样本区,基于GIS平台提取了6种滑坡影响因素(坡度、坡向、高程、地层、河流影响距、道路影响距)。再分别利用3种典型的数理统计模型(证据权模型、信息量模型和逻辑回归模型)进行上述因素与历史滑坡间的相关性分析。最后对验证区(石楼幅)内的73个滑坡点进行敏感性评价,并采用滑坡点落在极高敏感区和高敏感区的比例和受试工作者特征曲线2种方法进行精度分析。结果显示证据权模型的评价精度均为最高,说明该模型更适用于该地区的黄土滑坡敏感性评价。 Landslide sensitivity evaluation can quantitatively or semi-quantitatively determine the spatial probability of regional landslide,and can be effectively used in disaster prevention and mitigation projects.In order to explore the applicability of mathematical statistics model in the sensitivity evaluation of regional landslide,Lvliang Mountain area in Shanxi Province is taken as an example in this paper for its frequent occurrence of loess landslides.Firstly,189 loess landslide sites in three counties(Jixian County,Wucheng Town and Linxian County)are selected as sample areas,and 6 influencing factors as to landslide(slope,aspect,elevation,stratum,influencing distance of river,and influencing distance of road)are extracted based on GIS platform.Then,3 typical mathematical statistics models(weight-of-evidence model,information value model and logistic regression model)are used to analyze the correlation between the above factors and historical landslides.Finally,73 landslide sites in the verification area(Shilou County)are evaluated in sensitivity,and the accuracy is analyzed by two methods:the proportion of landslides in extremely sensitive areas and highly sensitive areas,and the receiver operator characteristic curve.The results show that the evaluated accuracy of the weight-of-evidence model reaches the highest,indicating that this model is more suitable for the sensitivity evaluation of loess landslide in the area.
作者 冯凡 唐亚明 卢全中 李彦娥 郭子正 Feng Fan;Tang Yaming;Lu Quanzhong;Li Yane;Guo Zizheng(School of Geological Engineering and Surveying and Mapping,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China;Xi'an Geological Survey Center,China Geological Survey,Xi'an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Loess Land Disaster,Ministry of Land and Resources,Xi'an 710054,China;Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处 《甘肃科学学报》 2019年第3期68-76,84共10页 Journal of Gansu Sciences
基金 中国地质调查局项目“吕梁山区城镇地质灾害调查”(121201011000150018) 中国地质调查局项目“关中盆地渭南地区地裂缝地质灾害调查”(DD20160264).
关键词 黄土滑坡 数理统计模型 敏感性评价 证据权模型 地理信息系统 Loess landslide Mathematical statistics model Sensitivity evaluation Weight-of-evidence model Geographic information system
作者简介 冯凡(1993-),男,四川广元人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地质灾害调查。E-mail:fengyang0628@163.com;通信作者:唐亚明,E-mail:tangyaming73@sohu.com.
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