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土地价格对城市产业结构升级的影响研究—基于全国105个地级及以上城市数据的实证分析

A Study on the Impact of Land Price on Urban Industrial Structure Upgrading: An Empirical Analysis Based on Urban Data of 105 Prefecture-level and above Prefecture-level cities
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摘要 土地是基本生产要素之一,其价格对产业结构的形成和变化有着重要的影响。总体而言,因为土地供给弹性较低,伴随着城市的不断扩张,土地价格呈现出上升的趋势。一个城市地价的上升对其产业结构升级可能产生积极影响,也可能产生消极影响。依据105个地级及以上城市2009-2016年地价和产业结构的面板数据分析,我们发现:地价上升的确具有促进城市产业结构升级的作用,且东中西部存在显著差异;地价并非越高越好,一旦地价与人均地区生产总值之比超过门槛值时,地价对产业结构升级的促进作用就会显著下降。其给我们的启示是,虽然地价上升确实具有倒逼产业结构升级从而促进经济增长的作用,但如果地价涨幅过大,其对产业结构升级从而促进经济增长会有不利影响,特别是在经济高度开放的条件下,地价涨幅过大必然会吞噬企业生产率提升带来的利益,就可能造成逼退低端产业而高端产业不愿进入的局面,因此如何管控地价,使其与城市产业结构升级的需要相适应,将成为城市地方政府要解决的重要问题。 Land is one of the basic production factors, and its price has an important impact on the formation and change of industrial structure. Overall, land prices are on the rise due to the low elasticity of land supply and the continuous expansion of the city. The rise of a city’s land price may have a positive impact on its industrial structure upgrade, and may also have a negative impact. Based on the panel data analysis of the land price and industrial structure data of 105 prefecture-level cities and above in 2009-2016, we find that the rise of land prices does have the effect of promoting the upgrading of urban industrial structure, and there are significant differences in the eastern, central and western regions; not the higher the better, once the ratio of land price to per capital GDP exceeds the threshold, the promotion of land price will be significantly reduced. The enlightenment to us is that although the rise in land prices does have the effect of upgrading the industrial structure and promoting economic growth,but if land prices rise too much, it will have an adverse impact on the upgrading of industrial structure and thus on the promotion of economic growth.Especially under the conditions of high openness, the excessive increase in land prices will inevitably engulf the benefits brought about by the productivity improvement of enterprises, which may result in the retreat of low-end industries, and the high-end industries are reluctant to enter. Therefore, how to control land prices and adapt them to the needs of urban industrial structure upgrading will become an important issue for urban local governments.
作者 曾国安 马宇佳 Zeng Guoan;Ma Yujia(不详)
出处 《宏观经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2019年第6期95-107,共13页 Macroeconomics
基金 国家社会科学基金一般项目(15BJL153) 武汉市住房保障和房屋管理局课题“武汉房地产市场监管体制机制研究”的资助。
关键词 土地价格 产业结构升级 面板模型 非线性影响 Land price Industrial structural upgrade Panel model Nonlinear influence
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