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碳源视角下中国碳排放的地区差距及其结构分解 预览

Regional disparity in China’s carbon emissions and its structural decompositionfrom the perspective of carbon sources
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摘要 厘清碳排放地区差距的来源不仅有助于深入理解碳排放的地区差距特征,也有助于科学合理地制定和实施碳减排政策。本文基于CEADs发布的1997—2016年中国省级表观碳排放清单,利用Dagum基尼系数及方差分解方法,从碳源视角出发,探讨了中国碳排放的地区差距及其来源。研究发现:①关于总体及碳源碳排放的地区差距,天然气消费碳排放的地区差距最大,而水泥生产碳排放的地区差距程度最小。②关于总体及碳源碳排放的空间结构,无论是总体碳排放还是原煤消费、天然气消费、水泥生产的碳排放,其地区差距的主要空间来源均为地区间差距,而原油消费碳排放的地区差距主要来源于超变密度。③关于总体及碳源碳排放的要素结构,原煤消费碳排放的地区差距对总体碳排放地区差距的贡献率最高,而水泥生产碳排放的地区差距贡献率最小。④关于总体及碳源碳排放的空间-要素结构,原煤消费、原油消费、天然气消费以及水泥生产碳排放的整体、地区间以及地区内差距能够较好地解释总体碳排放的地区差距,但上述四种碳源的超变密度对总体碳排放的超变密度解释能力较低。本文从空间结构、要素结构以及空间-要素结构等三重维度,考察了碳排放的地区差距及其结构分解问题,为差异化地制定碳减排和碳源碳减排政策提供了实证依据,也为加速形成区域减排路径和加快推进绿色低碳转型提供了决策参考。 Clarifying the structural sources of the inequality in carbon emissions is not only conducive to an in-depth understanding of the regional disparity in carbon emissions,but also to the rational formulation of carbon reduction policies.Based on the 1997—2016 China provincial appearance carbon emission inventory issued by CEADs,this paper uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and the variance decomposition method to explore the gaps and sources of carbon emission in China from the perspective of carbon sources.Research Founding:①Regarding the regional disparity between overall carbon emissions and carbon emissions from carbon sources,the regional disparity of carbon emissions from natural gas consumption is the largest,while the regional disparity of carbon emissions from cement production is the smallest.②Regarding the spatial structure,whether it is overall carbon emissions or carbon emissions from raw coal consumption,natural gas consumption,and cement production,the main spatial source of regional disparity is the regional inequality.The regional disparity in carbon emissions from crude oil consumption is mainly due to the transvariation intensity.③Regarding the elemental structure,the regional gap in carbon emissions from raw coal consumption has the highest contribution rate to the overall carbon emissions inequality,and the contribution rate of carbon emissions from cement production is the smallest.④In terms of the space-element structure,the overall,inter-regional and intra-regional disparity in raw coal consumption,crude oil consumption,natural gas consumption,and carbon emissions from cement production can better explain the regional disparity in overall carbon emissions.However,the transvariation intensity of the above four carbon emission sources have a lower ability to interpret the transvariation intensity in the overall carbon emissions.This paper examines the regional disparity of carbon emissions and its structural decomposition from the three dimensions of spatial structure,elemental structur
作者 刘华军 石印 雷名雨 LIU Hua-jun;SHI Yin;LEI Ming-yu(School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan Shandong 250014,China)
出处 《中国人口资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第8期87-93,共7页 China Population,Resources and Environment
基金 国家社科基金项目“供给侧结构性改革下农业绿色全要素生产率的空间格局及提升路径研究”(批准号:18BJY140)。
关键词 二氧化碳排放 地区差距 Dagum基尼系数 结构分解 carbon dioxide emission regional disparity Dagum Gini coefficient structural decomposition
作者简介 刘华军,博士,教授,博导,主要研究方向为绿色发展。E-mail:huajun99382@163.com。
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