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供给侧改革背景下新疆棉花生产布局空间变化及影响因素分析

Analysis of spatial distribution and influencing factors of cotton production layout in Xinjiang under the backdrop of supply side reform
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摘要 棉花目标价格改革政策是新疆农业供给侧改革的重要实现方式,随着该政策的推进,棉花生产逐步由长江流域和黄河流域向新疆转移,同时,在新疆局部也呈现出棉花生产向优势区域集中的发展特征。由于棉花目标价格试点工作主要针对新疆,因此,文中使用空间计量模型对该政策执行后的新疆棉花生产布局空间变化及影响因素进行深入分析。结果显示:棉花的经济效益、非农就业机会是影响棉花生产布局的重要原因;棉花补贴政策、人均耕地面积、单位面积机械拥有量和农业劳动力数量对棉花生产规模有正向影响;县域间空间互动效应在棉花生产布局中发挥了显著作用。 The policy of the cotton target price reform is an important way to realize the agricultural supply side reform in Xinjiang. With the promotion of this policy,the cotton production is gradually transferred from the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River basin to Xinjiang. Meanwhile,in the part of Xinjiang,the development characteristics that the cotton production moving to the dominant region are also presented. Because the pilot work of the cotton target price is mainly aimed at Xinjiang,this paper uses the spatial measurement model to analyze the spatial change and the influencing factors of the cotton production layout in Xinjiang after the implementation of the policy. The results show that cotton economic benefits and non-agricultural employment opportunities are important factors affecting the layout of cotton production. The cotton subsidy policy,per capita arable land area,the amount of mechanical quantity per unit area and the number of agricultural labor force have a positive effect on the scale of cotton production,and the spatial interaction effect between counties plays a significant role in the distribution of cotton production.
作者 于雅雯 余国新 魏敬周 YU Yawen;YU Guoxin;WEI Jingzhou(Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences,Chongqing 402160;Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)
出处 《干旱区资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第5期74-80,共7页 Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金 新疆高校科研计划人文社科项目(XJEDU2017RS025) 国家自然科学基金项目(71463058) 重庆文理学院博士人才引进项目(2017RJJ45) 国家社科基金项目(16CSH041)资助.
关键词 棉花 生产布局 空间溢出效应 空间计量模型 面板数据 cotton production layout spatial spillover effect spatial econometric model panel data
作者简介 于雅雯(1991-),女,汉族,新疆乌鲁木齐人,博士,讲师,主要从事农业经济政策研究,E-mail:767779267@qq.com;通讯作者:魏敬周(1988-),男,汉族,重庆永川人,博士,讲师,主要从事农业经济政策研究,E-mail:870826499@qq.com
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