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中国蔬菜生产的空间分布及其对价格波动的影响 认领 被引量:19

The Spatial Distribution of Vegetable Production in China and Its Impact on Vegetable Price Volatility
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摘要 利用修正的Gini系数和Moran指数,对中国蔬菜生产的空间分布特征进行了考察,然后理论分析了生产空间分布影响蔬菜价格波动的作用机理,并对其影响进行实证检验。结果表明:1中国蔬菜生产呈显著的地理集聚特征。蔬菜生产虽有所西移,但集聚程度依然很高。2生产的空间分布通过作用于流通成本、市场供需及外部环境等因素对蔬菜价格波动产生了重要影响。具体而言,地理集聚增加了流通成本进而推动蔬菜价格上涨。生产的空间分布变化导致东部地区蔬菜供需失衡问题进一步恶化,加剧了蔬菜价格波动。此外,生产的地理集聚增加了主产地蔬菜生产面临的外部冲击风险,加大了蔬菜价格异常波动的可能性。3生产的空间分布对蔬菜价格波动的影响表现出显著的地区差异:主产地蔬菜价格波动较主销地更为剧烈,主产地价格波动主要源于季节变动而主销地主要源于趋势变动。 Revised Gini coefficient and Moran's Index are used to investigate the characteristics and dynamic changes of vegetable production in China, and then this paper analyses the mechanism and effects of the spatial distribution of vegetable production on vegetable price volatility theoretically and empirically. The results show that:(a) vegetable production in China reveals significant geographical concentration features and maintains a high level of geographical concentration accompanied by a westward shift of vegetable production.(b) the spatial distribution of vegetable production has a significant effect on vegetable price volatility by acting on the transportation costs, supply and demand in the vegetable market, and external environment. More specifically, geographical concentration of vegetable production caused higher cost of transportation, more serious imbalance between vegetable supply and demand in east China, and higher production risk in the major vegetable producing areas, which exacerbating the vegetable price volatility.(c) the impact of spatial distribution of vegetable production on price volatility reveals great differences across regions: price volatility in the major vegetable producing areas is more intense than that in the major consumer areas; moreover, price volatility in the major producing areas is mainly caused by the seasonal variation while price volatility in the major consumer areas is mainly caused by the trend change.
作者 纪龙 李崇光 章胜勇 JI Long;LI Chong-guang;ZHANG Sheng-yong ( College of Economics and Management/Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei , China)
出处 《经济地理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第1期148-155,共8页 Economic Geography
基金 国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD048) 国家自然科学基金项目(71273104)
关键词 蔬菜生产 空间分布 地理集聚 价格波动 地区差异 vegetable production spatial distribution geographical concentration price volatility regional differences
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